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I graded my own ML option forecasts. Here's the Brier score.

I graded my own ML option forecasts. Here's the Brier score.

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Comments 1
2 min read
Survivorship Bias: Why the Data You Can See Is Already Filtered

Survivorship Bias: Why the Data You Can See Is Already Filtered

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2 min read
Comparing Two Eval Runs by Their Average Pass Rate Is the Wrong Test

Comparing Two Eval Runs by Their Average Pass Rate Is the Wrong Test

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14 min read
Meta-Analysis: Between-Study Heterogeneity

Meta-Analysis: Between-Study Heterogeneity

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6 min read
Meta-Analysis: Motivation and Limitations

Meta-Analysis: Motivation and Limitations

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4 min read
Your eval pass rate is 98 percent. Your confidence interval is probably wrong.

Your eval pass rate is 98 percent. Your confidence interval is probably wrong.

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15 min read
The bootstrap, confidence intervals without the formula

The bootstrap, confidence intervals without the formula

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3 min read
Monte Carlo Simulation for Tournament Forecasting: From a Match Model to Bracket Probabilities

Monte Carlo Simulation for Tournament Forecasting: From a Match Model to Bracket Probabilities

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6 min read
The regression your eval set is too small to catch

The regression your eval set is too small to catch

Comments 1
7 min read
One average eval score was hiding two different failure modes

One average eval score was hiding two different failure modes

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5 min read
I graded my own ML option forecasts. Here's the Brier score.

I graded my own ML option forecasts. Here's the Brier score.

Comments
2 min read
Conformal intervals under a log transform: the blow-up isn't a back-transform bug

Conformal intervals under a log transform: the blow-up isn't a back-transform bug

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4 min read
Modeling the Expected Value of a Sealed Card Box (and Where the Number Quietly Lies)

Modeling the Expected Value of a Sealed Card Box (and Where the Number Quietly Lies)

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5 min read
Build a Box Plot Calculator in Pure JavaScript — No Libraries Needed

Build a Box Plot Calculator in Pure JavaScript — No Libraries Needed

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5 min read
Your p-value answered a question you didn't ask.

Your p-value answered a question you didn't ask.

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5 min read
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