When to Singularity, is it before 2060?

It is evident that since the launch of ChatGPT, there has been a surge in the development of new AI systems, such as AutoGPT, Lalama variants, and many others. This trend has raised the question of when AI will reach the level of AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) experts believe that singularity, which refers to machines capable of human-level thinking, could happen before the end of this century. The majority of participants in five surveys with around 1700 respondents expect AI singularity to occur before 2060. AI entrepreneurs are more optimistic than researchers, with estimates ranging from 2030 to 2050. Reaching AGI seems inevitable to most experts because human intelligence is fixed unless we merge our cognitive capabilities with machines, and machine intelligence depends on algorithms, processing power, and memory, which have been growing at an exponential rate.

The fear of singularity arises from the potential of a machine capable of continuously improving itself, reaching beyond human capabilities, and possibly becoming conscious. AI experts estimate that there is a 50% chance that high-level machine intelligence will occur until 2059. The estimates vary based on geography, with Asian respondents expecting AGI to occur in 30 years, whereas North Americans expect it to happen in 74 years. While these estimates seem reasonable, they could be over-optimistic as AI researchers have made similar predictions before, which did not come to pass.

In conclusion, while reaching AGI seems inevitable to most AI experts, the predictions on the timeline for this achievement vary widely. Most of these predictions range between 2030 and 2075, with the majority expecting it to occur before 2060. However, there is a significant difference of opinion based on geography, and AI entrepreneurs are more optimistic than researchers. Despite the historical experience of over-optimistic predictions by AI researchers, the rapid development of algorithms, processing power, and memory suggests that the timeline for AGI might be closer to the optimistic estimates.