loading...

How are you preparing for the recession?

meatboy profile image Meat Boy ・1 min read

How are you preparing for the upcoming economical crisis? Most industries and markets are falling. People are losing their jobs. What your expectations about IT industry and what are you doing to be prepared?

Discussion

markdown guide
 

Are we sure of this apocalyptic scenario? some industries and markets are slowing, due to lack of demand, which should go back to normal if not higher after the storm, demand has go nowhere, has just delayed; people losing jobs is the same thing, once demand recover job should come back with it, of course it'll take time for people to recover their loss if income; we'll have to see what measures take govs to deal with it, probably lowering the loan interests and give incentives to entrepreneurs and business growth to reactivate the economy; let's hope that all the money goes to productive hands and not to financial institutions. Some industries are hurting, like in-person services, but other are thriving like streaming, gaming, etc. Some industries will probably adopt more remote work, which should lower costs and in competitive markets, that should lower prices. As far as I see, the big problems have been where market though some value that wasn't there; internet bubble, banks fiascos, etc. In this case is different, demand hasn't dropped money hasn't lose considerable value. People jobs hasn't disappear. Is just a temporal drop in the demand in some industries.

Assume a crisis when there is no certainty is the first step to start one, panic is never useful. This whole mess would have been much less severe if it where dealt with calm, order and less panic. I think a lot of people will end up with huge stash of TP that would have helped the ones who ran out, all in the name of the panic. The scarcity of masks and gloves for medical personnel has been because many stashed them without really needed them. Some think that generating panic dumb people will listen, but dumb people going to parties and to the beach are not affected by it. Is a useless exercise that only works for news ratings.

No one in history has said afterwards, I should have panicked more.

 

It’s not apocalyptic in my mind.

However I theorize the sudden change in wealth distribution from companies scoring or losing on the isolation will definitely shake up the job market, even for us IT people. :)

It will be okay, but it might mean some of us will be thrown back out on the job market to be redistributed I think.

Having a plan and some funds is only sensible, just like having some’ food in the pantry for a rainy day makes sense.

Corona’ is like a global rainy day in my optic. :)

 

Oh yes, it will be some changes, but when hasn't?, there are always some new war, some "disruptive" new tech, some new drug, some natural disaster, etc. And every time people treat it like the apocalypse, I blame us as people and journalists, that realized that apocalypse sells and all the people buys it. Not long ago the work was ending because of "some" president, panic everywhere!, terrorists, panic everywhere!. We have to realize, yes things happen, sometimes are bad, sometimes are good, most of the times is bad for some and good for others. We should have a plan, but no panic, we have to just chill, and adjust the course.

And yes, many will lose their job and many will have ward time paying the bills, well, what's new?, maybe people in "good countries" will now get a glimpse of how the rest of the world lives, maybe after this some will understand that refugees weren't just making a fuzz. In some places the situation is really dire, much much, much, worse that a few days inside a safe house with electricity and fiber internet. So, no TP? well wash you ass in warm water and just chill, is not that bad. Collapsed health system? welcome to the club, we have been there a long time in places many can't even find in a map.

Many extroverted may feel like the end of the world because they have been forced to a world not made for them, well my friends, that how it has been for centuries for introverted fellows. Me included. That sensation that you are out of place and the feeling that "this is unnatural", well, you'll get used to it just like us.

My message is, no apocalypse is coming, you'll be just fine, some of us will not but that's normal, have some alternate plans just as always, don't succumb to the "panic mode" news try to sell. Just be calm and careful, be smart, be nice, we are gonna be just fine.

I don't think pandemics really compare to war and terrorism.
Those situations are typically more geographically localised issues.
So they have less of an impact on global wealth distribution.

So i consider this is lot's of new actually. :)

more reason to not assume a crisis, it may or not result in one, and that's my point, crisis usually are because of markets readjusting to a misrepresented value, this is not the case, in this case is just a change in the demand and a hold in some cases, services industries are not disappearing, they are only in a hiatus. People will not stop going to the movies, they just stopping for now, if some industries get permanently reduced because the market realize that remote is possible, well, is just a natural change made quicker. New shouldn't result in panic, in fact there are many positive changes because of this, things are more often than not a mix of good and bad; mainly because there is no "good" or "bad", the advent of the internet was bad for some, bad for many in fact. But was also good, many things that happen nowadays are new and we could panic about any or all of them; we could panic about climate change, or we could calmly solve it; we could panic about the potential disastrous effects on quantum computing and the current cryptography and overall systems that rely on them, or we can solve it. We face new things constantly, panic has helped no one, ever. Act based on fear is never wise. Of course this thing is a new thing, we'll hopefully learn about it and move on, just think how lucky we are that the first global pandemic (kinda redundant but to illustrate the point) was with a virus so mild, imagine this same scenario with something more lethal, more contagious; for the next pandemic (yes, this is not gonna be the last, the world is getting more connected every day), we will be much better prepared. Maybe it helps to give more importance to STEM, to stop worrying about dumb things, 2020 and we still are debating if the amount of melatonin in the skin make some difference beyond its color, people wanting to control with whom other people should or shouldn't have sex or if other people should or shouldn't identify themselves with whatever gender they feel like. Maybe we get out of this a little less petty, a little less selfish and a lot more organized. Is this whole situation good, with unicorns and rainbows? hell no, many has died, many are having hard times, but is this all bad with rivers of blood and hellfire? not either. Is new, it'll have some effects, we'll deal with it.

And about being localized, I'm in Chile, which is unofficially in the ass of the planet, we even look like a tail. And here we have felt all the messes in the US; what is decided in the US or Europe is swiftly followed by the rest of the world, geographical boundaries are not as well defined anymore; problems in Haiti and Venezuela, for example, made immigration to here a lot bigger, and that was new, it had it's good and bad things with it; some panicked and after all, it wasn't such a big deal. We should know, he often sell change, is hard, but is our business ;)

 

I respect your perspective and call for calm, but personally, I disagree with most/all the points you've raised.

I don't think it's correct to say demand has gone nowhere. While certain areas (e.g. medical equipment and online streaming) may be surging, the reality is that the vast majority of industries are so badly hit by declining demand that companies are laying off 90% of their staff and closing indefinitely. Every airline in the world needs a government bailout or will go bankrupt. Same goes with any travel-related business. Entire public transport systems are shut down. Every major sports league has suspended its season—advertisers pull out, teams have no revenue and enter legal disputes with players whose salary they can no longer afford. Cinemas are closing for the first time in 120 years. The hospitality and physical retail industries have no income (except for businesses capable of pivoting to online delivery).

All these people will be put on welfare which increases pressure on the state. Even before this crisis, global debt levels were enormous. So now, the US (and many Western countries) are forced to implement massive quantitative easing programs (i.e. printing money) in order to artificially stimulate aggregate demand and prevent the economy from collapsing. Printing money devalues it in the long run due to the increase in supply.

The uncomfortable truth is that even though some sectors are seeing demand surges, these spikes are far, far offset by the rest of the economy shedding jobs. Because software development doesn't exist in a bubble, you will likely be hit by COVID-19's impact on your companies finances. If you're lucky enough to work for a FAANG-tier company you'll probably be less affected! But even then, you should be concerned about coronavirus potentially worsening wealth inequality (which itself has huge implications that I won't go into here).

However, the scariest thing is that we are not even close to the pandemic's peak. People were hoping Italy's meltdown had finally passed its peak. Instead, it has set a new record of 969 deaths in the past 24 hours. And don't forget: this is still happening despite all the draconian lockdown measures introduced.
"No one in history has said afterwards, I should have panicked more."—Ironically, an infamous quote I've been hearing from Italians is "If I could go back 3 weeks in time... I would tell myself to be more worried and to take the virus more seriously." New York's healthcare system is on the verge of collapse, and every other US state will follow. It's not true that the virus' spread has been caused by overly-panicked behaviour; it's actually the complete opposite. Like Italy and Spain, America was fooled into not taking COVID-19 seriously due to its asymptomatic nature (people who look and feel fine are unknowingly spreading it within the population). China—and Asia—is now experiencing a second wave of infections. Finally, if developed Western countries cannot cope with the strain from COVID-19, it will surely then decimate countries in Africa, which appear to be entering the initial phase of the virus. As if this wasn't enough, the sucker-punch is the virus' chance of mutating and becoming more lethal increases, as happened in other pandemics like the Spanish flu.

The longer this pandemic continues, the more consumer confidence remains depressed as households adopt an essentials-only "wartime" mentality. Startups are now luxuries (even moreso than before) and VCs are not investing money (or very small amounts, if so). The global agenda has shifted to damage control. This means doing whatever possible to stop businesses and companies from going under—not financing new ones.

I do agree that things will eventually return to normal. Even better, we'll have more efficient systems developed to deal with disasters like coronavirus. The concern is that this scenario is likely a few years away and many lives will be lost or ruined during that period. When infectious disease experts say they have no idea how to stop COVID-19, there is every reason to be alarmed: twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status...

FWIW—I hope to God I'm wrong. I've never wanted to be more wrong in my life. But all the signs are pointing in this direction, and I believe it's better to be overly cautious than overly optimistic. Stay safe, and stay at home.

 

what people confuse is caution with fear and panic; the first is an intellectual effort, is a decision, has a purpose. The later is an emotional response, is useless, makes us do stupid things, blinds us. Italy didn't needed more panic, they needed more order, more calm, taking something seriously is put aside fear and panic and make an intellectual choice, not blindly reacting but making informed decisions.

Assume a doomsday scenario has not use now, the important thing is to hold for now; you have some practical advice to be prepared, that's great, please share it; spread fear is useless. Being afraid is not taking action, worrying is not working on the problem. You can cross the street carefully without being scared of cars, you can wash your teeth without panic of losing them, fear mongering is not only unnecessary it will worsen the situation and actually reduce investments and slow even more the recovery of the economy. Generalized fear, is translated to everyone taking out their money from the market and storing it, increasing interests to protect themselves. That's how the economy freezes.

It also worsen the situation causing an enviroment of anxiety, more depression in the air, less and wors sleep, worst mood for everyone. Yes take it more seriously, so stop being afraid and start taking action. Don't stay at home because of fear to get out, stay at home because is the smart move, because you are helping yourself and others; buy with caution what you think you'll need, not with panic to stash and taking unnecesarily from others who actually need it. Don't spread anxiety and depression, lift spirits, that's what we need, you don't rebuild or fix things in terror.

 

Having got caught out with my pants down years ago (redundancy), I realise that companies don't care about you, they only care for themselves. We were all laid off just 1 month before Christmas when the job market is at its worse. They pay the least they can and don't care one bit. I struggled to find work because I worked in quite a niche area.

It's likely that company budgets will be cut so it's prudent to expect the worse.

1) Reduce unnecessary bills now - save up money. Its something I've always ensured I have - a buffer of money to protect against bad times.
2) start looking at job-sites - so you get to understand the upcoming changes to the market.
3) from (2)... learn the skills that are high in demand. Go for quantity - the more choices you have, the more chance you have of finding a new job. Being specialised in a very niche market area is not the best idea.
4) Also identify what kind of work is "necessary" as opposed to something that can be cut back to save budgets.
5) update the resume / CV

After my redundancy, I changed my attitude to work. I felt its best to do something thats in demand rather than what I'm interested in. In fact, if it is "boring" so much the better because it wont attract talented people (making supply/demand work in your favour). For that reason, I switched from development to test-automation and feel like I'm thriving in the area. It's also something that companies 'need' as opposed to frivolous work.

 

I had previously planned to pay off my truck this month, but am instead paying the minimum on everything to get my safety net built up in case I find myself in a long stretch without income.

As far as a recession coming: no one really knows what will happen in the coming months. Everything could just go back to normal, people will pay back the debts they incurred while being laid off and continue life as normal. That's the optimist in me talking. I'll just close with a quote:

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst

 

What you have said is really exaggerated, not most industries and markets are falling.

Some businesses will bankrupt, that's true, but others will operate just fine, others are changing their direction and doing better than before COVID-19, for instance there are way more food delivery services and they are hiring more people to adapt to demand (people that lost jobs), more people are needed to manage logistics, shipping, warehouses due to increased online shopping. Companies that manufacture clothes are now doing masks, costumes and they have increased shifts because of high demand. I can name more examples where people are not losing, but rather changing their jobs right now.

I do not think that IT will change that much, it's a universal domain. I can imagine more e-commerce jobs opening, I also believe we'll see more of something probably branded MedTech.

Also - US, EU, probably China as well are throwing massive money to stimulate economy health.

 

Today my employer put those who aren't needed for the next two months on furlough at 80% of their salary, and cut the hours of the rest to 80%, with a corresponding salary cut (80% is because that's the assistance the government is providing), in order to avoid making anyone redundant. I was one of those who will stay working.

Sadly they also had to rescind a job offer to a dev who was meant to be starting next month.

I'm pretty hopeful that whatever happens I should be OK. I work for a fairly large agency with a lot of clients who are household names, including high street banks, and it has the support of a large parent company. I've got eight and a half years experience, a fairly diverse skillset that includes both web and hybrid app dev, and have spent the last two years overhauling a painfully bad PHP legacy app into something remotely presentable. Even if the whole company went belly up, I should be able to find something.

That said, a financial situation like this is unprecedented, and it's deeply scary.

 

Not more than usual, I have a pretty decent chance of finding new work if I need to.

Not to mention a 3 month quitting period where i am guatenteed pay, backed by my government if the company should close up shop.

And I can always compromise on pay if it comes to that.

Corona aside, I always prioritize having a financial buffer, there is so much else I might end up needing it for.

 

I dont know. I haven't thought about economy and that sorts of things before but this post caught my attention. Maybe its cus iam a student that im not much into economy but i always wondered how economy works.

Should students like me worry about the upcoming economic recession ? In my point of view atleast in my country government takes care of everything for students.
I dont think it will be so severe for IT industry.Maybe i think so because of my lack of knowledge in economics.

If the IT Industry is going to crumble that will seriously effect CS students like me .We will not get campus placements if companies are going to face severe crisis.
So lets hope that economy will regain its momentum very soon .

 

Information technologies should thrive in recessionary times. Technology tends to leverage various types of economies that propel continued need. Stay relevant, continue to build skills, and focus on delivering excellent work. Entrepreneurial? If so, recessions are optimistic times due to the thinning of the market, which reduces competition.

 

You can't lose anything if you don't have anything :) So I'm quite prepared.

 

"Hahahaha I'm a software engineer I'm basically guaranteed a job whenever"
-Some people in this industry

 

We need to see how this coming recession plays out. It might be a very quick dip and a swift comeback, or something that'll be far more dragged out. Lots of uncertainty.

Also this'll depend on how hard the healthcare system (at least in the US) gets hit, and how much leverage it'll have over the rest of the US economy.