In this position paper, we describe an approach to detecting and mitigating the spread of contagion across a large population. In light of the recent developments around the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus across multiple continents and geographies and the mortalities induced by the resultant disease, Covid-19, we believe that detecting, warning and arresting the spread of a contagion in a large population is one of society’s grand challenges. In this paper we present the blueprint of an end to end system that we believe is what is required to tackle such a societal challenge. This framework has been designed to operate at the level of an entire population such as a city, a state or even an entire nation. We believe this framework can equip decision makers, public health experts and governments with rich information and insights that can enable them to deploy the appropriate testing and vaccination schemes to eradicate the contagion from our societies.
Early warning system for contagious disease spreading where testing is limited or logarithmic / not available and spread is exponential.
Assumption: Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are a good proxy of physical interaction network
Coverage vs Sensitivity vs Specificity
Cost (prediction) vs error % (deaths)
Better to have more false positives than optimise costs (ie false negatives)
Invasiveness vs Effectiveness