re: How to estimate time for a project/task accurately VIEW POST

re: Humans are bad at estimations. There are essentially two problems here: a) Most humans have too few datapoints in mind to make a realistic progno...

Thank you for your comment!
Yes, you're right - humans are bad estimators. But firstly, the project/time should be estimated anyway and secondly, by collecting several opinions your estimate more likely will be in realistic range.


How so?
If you ask people how the weather will be tomorrow, the estimation doesn't get more accurate depending on the number of people you ask. But why do we believe that to be true for project management?

Perhaps ML will improve estimations rather than humans guessing.

It's simple. It called the wisdom of the crowd - individuals may be totally wrong but the whole crowd will be quite accurate. There are several methods of ML based on this paradigm as you mention ML here =) - bagging for example

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