Introduction

• It's easier to find the errors of others than to recognize own mistakes.
• We have to be aware of biases of intuition.
• The heuristic of judgment is prone to make mistakes.
• Often we substitute hard questions with easier ones, without even noticing them.

Systems

We have systems to solve problems:

• Fast: Intuition, biases, automatic, low effort
• Slow: Logic, puzzles, complex tasks, concentrate

Section 1

The basic elements of the judgments and the decisions are based on our two systems.

• Least effort: We use our intuition to avoid wasting energy
• The Lazy Controller: System 1 interprets the world and make almost all the decisions until we are faced with difficult calculations o focus on the task
• Associative machine: Primmingm, repeated fallacies are easier to be accepted
• Cognitive ease: Repeated experience, priming idea, and good humor make things familiar, seems true, seems good, look easy
• Conclusions: We make decisions with little information, Positive numbers are more unerring
• Substitutions: We change the difficult question for easy ones

Section 2

Why it's too difficult to think in a statistical way

• Law of lower numbers: Confidence when in doubt
• Anchors: serve as a tipping point
• Availability: available information != probability
• Representatibility: impressions != probability

Section 3

We are prone to overestimate what we know about the world, we have an excess of confidence and an illusion of certainty

Section 4

Dialog with the discipline of the economy

Section 5

Two me. One experiment, another remember