- It's easier to find the errors of others than to recognize own mistakes.
- We have to be aware of biases of intuition.
- The heuristic of judgment is prone to make mistakes.
- Often we substitute hard questions with easier ones, without even noticing them.
We have systems to solve problems:
- Fast: Intuition, biases, automatic, low effort
- Slow: Logic, puzzles, complex tasks, concentrate
The basic elements of the judgments and the decisions are based on our two systems.
- Least effort: We use our intuition to avoid wasting energy
- The Lazy Controller: System 1 interprets the world and make almost all the decisions until we are faced with difficult calculations o focus on the task
- Associative machine: Primmingm, repeated fallacies are easier to be accepted
- Cognitive ease: Repeated experience, priming idea, and good humor make things familiar, seems true, seems good, look easy
- Conclusions: We make decisions with little information, Positive numbers are more unerring
- Substitutions: We change the difficult question for easy ones
Why it's too difficult to think in a statistical way
- Law of lower numbers: Confidence when in doubt
- Anchors: serve as a tipping point
- Availability: available information != probability
- Representatibility: impressions != probability
We are prone to overestimate what we know about the world, we have an excess of confidence and an illusion of certainty
Dialog with the discipline of the economy
Two me. One experiment, another remember
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