Have you ever been in a highly complex situation with an expert and out of no where they just have an answer instantaneously ?
And when asked about how they knew, they just reply with “trust me, I just know” or “I had a hunch”.
How is it that they are able to do this instantaneously, and with high accuracy ?
Is it Magic ? Or is it something else ?
We’re going to get to the bottom of this!
In the book “Thinking fast and slow” by Daniel Kahneman, he presents two models to better understand this phenomenon which is referred to as expert intuition.
🧠 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗿𝗲:
1️⃣ Dr. Gary Klein’s model (high validity intuition)
2️⃣ Dr. Paul Meehl’s model (low validity intuition, statistical method)
These results are from years of research on studying clinicians, surgeons, firefighters, nurses, military operations, business operations, stock pickers and pundits.
We’re going to dive deep into the inner workings of both of these models to dispel some of this “magic” that goes on.
💡 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 ?
𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 - It will help us to better understand what is behind this seemingly “magical” decision making process (That experts use)
𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 - It will also provide insights on how to build expertise
𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 - It will help us understand in what situations should you supplement expert intuition with other decision making methods
I will be posting a lot more about this topic in the coming weeks.
It’s going to be a good one so stay tuned!
Make sure you like this post, and be sure to follow me 👉 @jareechang
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