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Paul Osadchuk
Paul Osadchuk

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Ethereum Hits the Road to $4,000. Or Not?

Positive Ethereum ETF updates ignite ETH’s spiking. Are we seeing it achieving the crucial $4k milestone?

Ethereum (ETH) has recorded a two-month high as the odds of the Ethereum Exchange Traded Fund’s (ETF) launch stepped up.

According to Eric Balchunas, a senior Bloomberg analyst, the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) is to do a 180 on Ethereum ETF approval. Previously, SEC used to implicitly stand against the action, as per Reuters’ sources.

Furthermore, Reuters claims that the U.S. securities regulator on Monday asked Nasdaq, CBOE, and NYSE to fine-tune their application to list spot Ether ETFs, signalling the agency may be poised to approve the filings.

On Tuesday, a Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart revealed that 5 of the potential Ethereum ETF issuers (VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco/Galaxy, Ark/21Shares, and Franklin) submitted their amended 19b-4 filings, which are believed to be the technical requirements for ETF approval.

The positive developments fuelled Ether market performance, as the asset’s price surged 18% Monday and registered another 8.6% uptick Tuesday before lately retreating to $3,700 range.

While a green light from the SEC would be a major win for the cryptocurrency industry, the debates on Ether hitting its significant $4,000 milestone heated up. The technical indicators and on-chain data hint at the potential uptick, but with the media impact in action, such evaluation may turn out to be an error.

Ethereum’s Seeks Record Interest

The increased potential for Ethereum ETF approval sparked an interest in the asset.

According to Santiment, ETH’s daily trading volume has surged 200% in momentum and totalled $37 billion, registering a two-month high.

Ether (ETH) trading volume. Source: Santiment

The Monday uptick led to a year-to-date high of $80 million short liquidations, as per Coinglass data. In comparison, the amount of long positions liquidated on the same day was $26 million.

Ether (ETH) total liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass

Furthermore, whales entered the rally, which can be noted by Santiment-monitored whale activity in the last 72 hours. Specifically, over May 20, 1393 transactions over $1 million were carried out, hitting a month-high since April 14.

Santiment data also revealed that the attention to Ether has resulted in an uptick in its social activity. According to the source, the coin’s social dominance on Monday broke a three-month record and totalled 2.28%.

$4,600 As The Next Goal for Ether

Technical analysis indicates that Ethereum has all chances to keep up with the rally in the long term.

A closer look at the monthly chart reveals that Ether’s price action against TetherUS (USDT) forms a rounding bottom pattern, which clearly marks a positive trend reversal in a long-term perspective.

As the neckline for this continuation pattern is at $4,635, the bullish comeback alongside broader market recovery signifies a high likelihood of a breakout.

ETH/USDT 1M chart. Source: WhiteBIT TradingView

Notably, the bullish monthly candle hints at positive trend continuation, seeing that Ether’s latest recovery took place at the successful retest of 50% (0.5) Fibonacci level.

Daily chart unveils a similar trend. Ether displays a bullish breakout of a falling wedge pattern going straight up. The uptrend challenges the trend-based 50% Fibonacci level and the $3,800 price level.

ETH/USDT 1D chart. Source: WhiteBIT Trading View

Furthermore, a crossover in Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal lines reflect a surge in underlying demand.

Crucially, Ethereum’s correlation with Bitcoin (BTC) marks the long-term upswing as well. The 4-hour chart reveals that ETH/BTC pair broke a long-term descending trend line (red), as can also be noted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands at 70 at the writing time.

ETH/BTC 4h chart. Source: WhiteBIT TradingView

What is more, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) formed two golden cross patterns, which mark a strong bullish outlook. Thus, the first pattern is formed with 20-day EMA (light blue) and 50-day EMA (blue), and the second one is an intersection between 20-day EMA and 200-day EMA (red).

The chart indicates that the local high (resistance) at $0.05346 stands in the way of further price movement. However, breaking above it could strengthen Ether against Bitcoin, targeting highs above $0.06.

Given the on-chain data dynamics, Ether (ETH) price action is swayed by fundamental factors, foremost of which is a fact of Ethereum ETF approval. This, if the fund is approved this Thursday, we could see Ether cross the crucial $4,600 point for a new all-time high (ATH).

Conversely, if the crowd resonance will not be on Ethereum’s side, the asset’s price could slide below the $3,600 support to test the $3,273 level. If intense profit-booking or sell-the-news take action, there’s a strong chance Ether could retest the $3,000 price range.

Will Ethereum Repeat Bitcoin’s Scenario?

According to Quinn Thompson, a crypto analyst and founder of Lekker Capital, Ethereum (ETH) remains undervalued against Bitcoin, despite the optimism about ETH.

“This leads me to believe that ETHBTC at 0.05 is still underpriced, particularly given we are in a bull market, entering the BananaZone and on-chain activity will likely make new ATHs in the coming months,” as goes in his post for X.

This puts Ethereum maxis in risk of not meeting the price surge expectations due to the ETF inflows – ones that boosted Bitcoin’s performance in March.

In the meantime, the market will focus on the SEC’s decision on May 23rd, which will dot the i’s of Ether’s prospective performance.

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