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Paul Osadchuk
Paul Osadchuk

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Bitcoin Endless Rebounds: Pre-Halving Volatility Hallmark?

Bitcoin slumps to $61,000 shortly after seeing bullish momentum of the $71,000 range. Why can this be a worrying sign for the investors?

Following the weekend’s market downsurge, Bitcoin (BTC) marked the strengthening of the bearish sentiment, retesting to the $61,000 price zone.

The correction bias followed a loud BTC rebound, taking the first cryptocurrency into the $71,000 range. A major reason behind its price decline since the 2nd of April was huge profit realizations, amounting to over $2.7 billion.

For over a month, domination has been constantly wandering between bulls and bears. Is BTC posed for a long-term recovery, or is it just another stage of the pre-halving volatility?

Bitcoin’s $71,000 Swift Recovery: Reasons

As per IT Tech, an author for CryptoQuant, cited the realization of enormous BTC profits as one of the crucial reasons for the cryptocurrency’s recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) realised profit by Short-term Holder Whale. Source: IT Tech/CryptoQuant

Despite this, IT Tech noted that Bitcoin experienced a drop in selling pressure as short-term holders have stopped realising losses on the price correction. By contrast, BTC marked increased inflows into the accumulation addresses, making their reverses hit all-time highs.

BTC inflows to accumulation addresses. Source: IT Tech/CryptoQuant

Additionally, IT Tech saw a strong BTC correlation with Tether (USDT) as a driving factor for Bitcoin’s uprising dynamics. In fact, new USDTs were minted in the recent past, which could have also contributed to BTC’s recovery above $70k.

Apart from the technical factors, the analyst highlighted the change in long-term investors’ behaviour, stressing the weakening BTC distribution. The atmosphere in the market indeed changed to more festive amidst the halving anticipation, being clearly spurred by the Greed and exchanges’ activities. Companies from CoinMarketCap to WhiteBIT crypto exchange seem to foster the community, creating a win-win situation.

Meanwhile, CoinDesk believes that the recent Bitcoin breakout comes from a higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report that highlights the U.S. economic resilience. For this very reason, upward dynamics were noted at Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold.

Halving Correction In Action?

Despite the fact that long-term holders’ movements in the last seven days were lower than average, signalling that they were willing to hold their assets, CryptoQuant data revealed high exchange netflows. This indicates an increased selling pressure and unveils the correction, overseen by the investors.

The short-term pessimism is marked via Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions ratio, which registered a sharp uptick.

Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions Ratio. Source: Glassnode

Nonetheless, the long-term indicators reveal neutral bias for BTC. Exponential Moving Averages of lengths 50, 100, and 200 register a straight movement ahead, while RSI remains in a bearish zone with a downtick, just as EMA 20.

BTC/USDT 1D chart. Source: WhiteBIT Trading View

Crucially, the whole crypto market slumped amidst the outburst of Iranian aggression towards Israel, bringing greater collapse for the Bitcoin price.

Long-Term Optimism

Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, sees $80,000 as the next closest target for Bitcoin. In a note sent to his clients on April 8, he stated:

"If the breakout is bullish, which we suspect, bitcoin could climb above 80,000 during the next few weeks – if not earlier. Buying at $69,280 and setting a stop loss at $65,000 appears appropriate".

BTC/USD 1D chart. Source: CoinDesk

To support Thielen’s thesis, CoinDesk noted a bullish flag pattern on the BTC/USD daily chart. A symmetrical triangle, often called a coil, represents consolidation within a narrowing price range. The market typically builds energy during the consolidation, which is eventually unleashed in the direction in which the range is resolved. More often than not, symmetrical triangles end with a bullish breakout.

By contrast, a renowned analyst Rekt Capital predicted Bitcoin rejection from its blue Range High and foresaw the consolidation ahead.

"Bitcoin is thus sandwiched between the old All Time Highs of $69000 (support) and the highs from two weeks ago of $71300 (resistance). There's scope for consolidation here going forward, “ – he wrote in his X post.

BTC/USD 1W chart. Source: X/Rekt Capital

By and large, Bitcoin chart has all chances to come further north, but it will be gotten through the increased volatility, as can be proven by a long-term holder’s movement.

Bitcoin’s Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). Source: CryptoQuant

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