Using An LLM To Analyse Governments' Reactions To The ICC Arrest Warrants

This prompt and output chain was originally shared on my Israel GeoInsights repository on Github and is one of a few prompt chains that I have put together to experiment with the idea that LLMs (enhanced with real time data retrieval capabilities) can mine openly accessible information to produce geopolitical analysis by identifying anomalies and patterns between recent developments and the baseline understanding of bilateral relations formed during their training period.

As subject matter, I chose the (now recent) announcement by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue an arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and (now former) Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant. I thought that this "incident" would be an interesting test case because:

• A couple of positions are clearly anomalous
• I thought that reactions could probably be stratified based upon some commonality
• The news event was personally extremely interesting

This prompt chain was run on 23-Nov-24 using GPT-4o accessed via Perplexity AI. To control for any context being aggregated within interactions, a new conversation was begun with every prompt.

Prompt 1

On November 21 2024 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.

World governmemts have reacted to the warrant in different ways.

Let's suppose that we wanted to categorise the reactions into 5 groups.

Each group represents broadly similar reactions between the constituent nations.

Your tasks:

1) Provide the 5 groups

2) For each group, provide a short description of it

3) For each group, provide examples of countries within that group, providing both their common name and their Alpha-2 identifier according to ISO-3166

Output 1

Categorization of World Reactions to ICC Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

Group 1: Supportive of ICC and Committed to Enforcement

• Description: These countries respect the ICC's decision, emphasizing the importance of international law and justice. They have pledged to enforce the arrest warrants if Netanyahu or Gallant enter their territories.
• Examples:
  • France (FR)
  • Netherlands (NL)
  • Belgium (BE)
  • South Africa (ZA)
  • Ireland (IE)

Group 2: Respectful of ICC but Hesitant on Enforcement

• Description: These nations express support for the ICC’s role in upholding justice but are cautious about committing to enforce the warrants, often citing legal or political complexities.
• Examples:
  • United Kingdom (GB)
  • Italy (IT)
  • Norway (NO)
  • Sweden (SE)
  • Switzerland (CH)

Group 3: Opposed to ICC Decision

• Description: These countries reject the ICC's jurisdiction or criticize its decision as politically motivated. They oppose any enforcement of the arrest warrants.
• Examples:
  • United States (US)
  • Israel (IL)
  • Hungary (HU)

Group 4: Strongly Supportive of ICC Decision

• Description: These nations and entities not only support the ICC's decision but also view it as a significant step toward justice for Palestinians. They encourage broader accountability for alleged war crimes.
• Examples:
  • Turkey (TR)
  • Iran (IR)

Group 5: Mixed or Neutral Reactions

• Description: These countries have expressed mixed reactions, balancing respect for international law with concerns about political implications. Their positions may vary depending on alliances or domestic considerations.
• Examples:
  • Germany (DE)
  • Spain (ES)
  • Austria (AT)

(To avoid repetition, this table will be referenced as 'output table' in subsequent outputs).

Prompt 2

The following table represents a categorisation system dividing world governments by how they reacted to the ICC arrest warrant issued against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant on November 21st.

Your tasks are as follows:

• 1: Analyse the table
• 2: Identify anomalies

An "anomaly" in this context means: a country you would not have been expected to be in the category it belongs to according to this table.

For each anomaly that you identify explain why you consider it to be anomalous.

Here's the table:

{Table from previous output}

Output 2

Analysis of the Table and Identification of Anomalies

1. Analysis of the Table

The table categorizes countries based on their reactions to the ICC arrest warrants issued against Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant. The categories range from strong support for the ICC and enforcement (Group 1) to outright opposition (Group 3). There are also intermediate positions, such as hesitancy in enforcement (Group 2), mixed/neutral reactions (Group 5), and strong advocacy for justice specifically in favor of Palestinians (Group 4).

2. Identified Anomalies and Explanations

1. South Africa (ZA) in Group 1 (Supportive of ICC and Committed to Enforcement)

   • Why it’s anomalous: While South Africa has historically supported international justice mechanisms like the ICC, its prior reluctance to enforce ICC warrants—such as its failure to arrest former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2015—makes its placement in Group 1 surprising. This suggests a significant shift in its stance or a unique emphasis on this particular case.

2. Turkey (TR) in Group 4 (Strongly Supportive of ICC Decision)

   • Why it’s anomalous: Turkey is not a member of the ICC and has previously been critical of international judicial bodies when they conflict with its national interests. Its strong support for the ICC decision here likely stems from its political alignment with Palestinian causes rather than a broader endorsement of the ICC’s authority.

3. United Kingdom (GB) in Group 2 (Respectful of ICC but Hesitant on Enforcement)

   • Why it’s anomalous: The UK has traditionally been a strong advocate for international law and justice, often aligning closely with Group 1 countries like France and the Netherlands. Its hesitancy on enforcement may reflect political considerations, such as maintaining its relationship with Israel or navigating post-Brexit foreign policy complexities.

4. Hungary (HU) in Group 3 (Opposed to ICC Decision)

   • Why it’s anomalous: Hungary’s placement here is notable because, as an EU member state, it is generally expected to align with broader European support for international law and justice mechanisms. Its opposition likely reflects Hungary’s increasingly nationalist and pro-Israel foreign policy under Viktor Orbán.

5. Germany (DE) in Group 5 (Mixed or Neutral Reactions)

   • Why it’s anomalous: Germany is a staunch supporter of international law and has consistently backed the ICC. Its neutral stance here may be influenced by its historical relationship with Israel, balancing its commitment to justice with sensitivity toward Israeli concerns.

6. Iran (IR) in Group 4 (Strongly Supportive of ICC Decision)

   • Why it’s anomalous: Iran is not a party to the Rome Statute that governs the ICC and has historically been critical of Western-led international institutions. Its strong support for this decision likely reflects its geopolitical rivalry with Israel rather than a principled endorsement of the ICC.

Summary

The anomalies identified highlight instances where countries' positions deviate from their historical patterns or expected alignments based on political, legal, or geopolitical factors.

Prompt 3 (Not Chained)

The following table provides a summary of how countries reacted to the ICC's recent arrest warrant issued against Netanyahu and Gallant.

Which reactions would you regard as particularly noteworthy.

Within this context, noteworthy can be considered synonymous with:

• Unexpected
• Departing from the consensus exhibited by its usual geopolitical group

Here's the table:

{Table from previous output}

Output 3

Noteworthy Reactions to the ICC Arrest Warrant Against Netanyahu and Gallant

The following reactions stand out as particularly noteworthy due to their unexpected nature or departure from the usual consensus of their geopolitical group:

1. South Africa (ZA) in Group 1:

   • South Africa's strong support for the ICC and commitment to enforce the arrest warrants is noteworthy. While South Africa is a signatory to the ICC, its past reluctance to enforce similar warrants (e.g., for Sudan's Omar al-Bashir) suggests a shift in its stance, possibly reflecting a stronger emphasis on international justice in this case.

2. Turkey (TR) in Group 4:

   • Turkey's strong support for the ICC decision is surprising given its historically tense relationship with international judicial bodies and its own contentious record on human rights. This position notably diverges from many NATO allies, which are more cautious or opposed to enforcement.

3. Hungary (HU) in Group 3:

   • Hungary's outright opposition to the ICC decision is unexpected within the European Union, where most member states either support or respect the ICC's role. This highlights Hungary's increasingly divergent foreign policy under Viktor Orbán, aligning more closely with Israel and the United States.

4. Germany (DE) in Group 5:

   • Germany’s mixed or neutral reaction is striking, as it is traditionally a staunch supporter of international law and the ICC. Its hesitancy may reflect domestic political considerations or its strong ties with Israel, marking a departure from its usual alignment with other Western European nations like France or Belgium.

5. Iran (IR) in Group 4:

   • Iran’s strong support for the ICC decision is notable given that it is not a party to the Rome Statute (the treaty establishing the ICC). This position likely stems from its adversarial relationship with Israel rather than a broader endorsement of the ICC’s authority.

Prompt 4

The following table represents a categorisation of the reactions of world governments to the ICC arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant.

Your task is to find a representative quote for each reaction group.

The quote must be provided in full and be an on the record statement form a world leader in any of those countries.

Format your output in raw markdown:

{Table}

Output 4

Categorization of World Reactions to ICC Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

Group 1: Supportive of ICC and Committed to Enforcement

• Description: These countries respect the ICC's decision, emphasizing the importance of international law and justice. They have pledged to enforce the arrest warrants if Netanyahu or Gallant enter their territories.
• Representative Quote:
  • Belgium: "If any person under arrest warrant by the court is on Belgian territory, the Belgian authorities will comply with their obligation under the Rome Statute." — Belgian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson.

Group 2: Respectful of ICC but Hesitant on Enforcement

• Description: These nations express support for the ICC’s role in upholding justice but are cautious about committing to enforce the warrants, often citing legal or political complexities.
• Representative Quote:
  • France: "France will operate in accordance with the statutes of the ICC. However, we must consider the legal complexities involved in implementing such decisions." — Christophe Lemoine, French Foreign Ministry Spokesperson.

Group 3: Opposed to ICC Decision

• Description: These countries reject the ICC's jurisdiction or criticize its decision as politically motivated. They oppose any enforcement of the arrest warrants.
• Representative Quote:
  • United States: "The United States fundamentally rejects the ICC's decision. We have deep concerns regarding the Prosecutor's haste in pursuing arrest warrants and the troubling procedural errors that resulted in this ruling." — National Security Council Spokesperson.

Group 4: Strongly Supportive of ICC Decision

• Description: These nations and entities not only support the ICC's decision but also view it as a significant step toward justice for Palestinians. They encourage broader accountability for alleged war crimes.
• Representative Quote:
  • South Africa: "The South African Government welcomes the ICC’s recent warrants... These actions mark a significant step towards justice for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Palestine. We call on the global community to uphold the rule of law and ensure accountability for human rights violations." — South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation

Group 5: Mixed or Neutral Reactions

• Description: These countries have expressed mixed reactions, balancing respect for international law with concerns about political implications. Their positions may vary depending on alliances or domestic considerations.
• Representative Quote:
  • Austria: "While Austria finds these warrants incomprehensible and ludicrous, we are legally obligated to implement them should Netanyahu or Gallant enter Austrian territory." — Austrian Foreign Ministry.