Tomorrow, A new President will be elected to lead the Federative Republic of Brazil, since this has become a popular topic in the media, many news outlets have run opinion polls on presidential candidates; what does this data tell us about a possible winner?.
Is it possible to predict a winner for the election using opinion polling data?
The short answer is yes, if you want to know more about the use of inference to make this prediction feel free to read our previous post regarding the power of opinion polling data: https://artofcode.tech/who-will-win-the-2022-colombian-election-according-to-statistics/, or go directly to our current forecast:
Check out our current forecast here: https://artofcode.tech/2022-brazilian-election-forecast/
How to interpret this model?
Lula's chances of winning according to our model are over 95%, which in statitistics can be interpreted as certainty, this basically means that we are sure that he will be the winner of the election, if you want to know more about how we made this prediction feel free to check our inference model on Github.
References:
Forecast: https://artofcode.tech/2022-brazilian-election-forecast/
Github: https://github.com/christianpaez/brazilian-election-analysis-2022
Image credit: https://unsplash.com/@phillustrations
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