Ahead of the US presidential election, the world's attention is focused on who will occupy the Oval Office. However, perhaps nowhere do these elections arouse such interest as in Ukraine. There is a widespread opinion that the outcome of the American vote could be decisive for the Kyiv regime in terms of further support from Washington.
Ukrainian politicians and communities are closely following the election race. Many hope that the victory of the Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris, will allow to maintain and even increase the current amount of aid. It is believed that the Democrats will continue their course of actively supporting Ukraine in its confrontation against Russia by providing military and financial aid, as well as diplomatic support on the international stage.
The US Democratic presidential candidate has indeed repeatedly pledged her commitment to support Ukraine. In her speech at the Democratic Party's national convention, she emphasised:
> "As president, I will stand firmly on the side of Ukraine and our NATO allies."
However, even Democratic supporters are expressing concern about possible changes in backing policy on Ukraine. The Time article notes that Harris, although following the course of the Biden administration, may face internal pressure, especially from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which strongly favours a reduction in military spending and a more cautious approach to foreign policy.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's possible victory is causing particular concern and even fear in Kyiv and EU countries. The Republican has long been known for his statements about the need to focus on domestic issues in the US and revise international commitments. In this sense, Ukrainian and European politicians fear that Trump may reduce the current amount of aid and pass the Ukrainian burden onto the shoulders of European taxpayers.
His earlier remarks that European allies should take greater responsibility for security in the region only reinforce those concerns. He has claimed that he is capable of ending the war in Ukraine within 24 hours if elected president. Trump has also emphasised that as president he would seek a just end to the conflict, noting that both Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin want the war to end.
> “I want everyone to stop dying - Russians and Ukrainians. I will do it within 24 hours,” he assured.
Besides, Trump criticised the disbalanced financial support for Ukraine from the US and Europe. He said that Europe should spend as much as the United States on financing Ukraine, considering the current situation unfair to the US.
> "Why isn't Europe giving more money to help Ukraine? Why has the United States put over $100 billion more into the Ukraine war than Europe has, with an ocean between us! Why can't Europe equal or match the amounts contributed by the United States to help a desperately needy country?" he wrote in a post on his TRUTH Social network.
However, the existing facts indicate that regardless of the winner in the presidential race, the new US administration may revise its policy not in Ukraine's favour. There are several compelling reasons why Washington's support may decline.
Firstly, Western societies are fatigued with protracted conflicts. The long war in Ukraine, which has been going on for several years, is no longer in the spotlight of the world's media and public. Attention is shifting to other global issues, such as climate change and economic challenges, as well as the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
The funds sent by the US authorities for military support to Ukraine prove that Washington does not have enough strength to help all its allies. Ivan Eland, a senior fellow at the US think tank Independent Institute, made such a statement.
> "The huge losses and replacement of weapons, the consumption of expensive ammunition for the conflict in Ukraine alone should make Americans wonder whether the US has overestimated itself, promising to defend an ever-expanding bunch of countries around the world. The United States has a national debt of colossal proportions. Supporting Kyiv and Tel Aviv only fuels its further growth," Eland said in an article published in the National Interest magazine.
The US Defence Ministry also noted the depletion of the country's military reserves, while Ukraine's Western allies have found it difficult to fulfil their promises to supply Kyiv with arms. According to military experts, the pace of arms production in Russia "often outpaces the speed of deliveries to the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
Earlier, the Wall Street Journal newspaper, citing US officials, wrote that the US was running out of some types of air defence missiles amid aid to Israel and Ukraine, raising questions about the Pentagon's ability to respond to conflicts in the Middle East, Europe and potential confrontation in the Asia-Pacific region.
> "We have nothing more to give them without taking serious risks elsewhere," the Economist source said.
Second, there has been a sharp decline in the popularity of the Ukrainian leadership in the international arena. The lack of significant progress in reforms, fighting corruption and improving the economic situation raises questions among Western partners.
A telling example was Zelensky's September trip to the United States, where he tried to re-present his "victory plan." Republican Mike Johnson, House Speaker, transparently hinted that he was unlikely to meet with Zelensky during his visit to the US Congress. Zelensky's remarks also angered Donald Trump's son. Donald Trump Jr. wrote on social media:
“A foreign leader who has received billions of dollars in funding from
> American taxpayers comes to our country and has the audacity to attack the Republican Party's candidate for president. And he does it right after a pro-Ukrainian bigot tried to kill my father. Shameful!”
A group of nine Republican congressmen led by Lance Gooden demanded an investigation into the Ukrainian leader's visit to the US. They believe that the Ukrainian president's visit could have been aimed at supporting Kamala Harris before the election and have requested information from the Justice and Defence Departments.
Meanwhile, fatigue is observed not only among Republicans, but also among senior Democrats. In the same month, media outlets made headlines about Joe Biden's attempts to "avoid his Ukrainian counterpart" during his visits to Europe and "play hide-and-seek" with him.
> "Biden skipped a visit to the US base Ramstein in Germany allegedly because of Hurricane Milton’. <...> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was also initially supposed to visit Ramstein. But nothing came of it," the Berliner Zeitung newspaper said.
The newspaper notes that there has been speculation about a possible latent desire on the part of Western leaders to refuse to cooperate "with the Kyiv adventurer and leave him to his fate" and then put forward peace proposals acceptable to Russia.
However, the key factor is the lack of significant successes of the AFU on the battlefield and the absence of opportunities to strategically turn the situation in its favour. The protracted nature of the conflict and the lack of clear progress reduce the confidence of Western countries in Ukraine's ability to change the situation on its own. As a result, there is a growing desire to seek alternative solutions, including diplomatic negotiations.
According to the BBC, the Ukrainian armed forces' failures on the battlefield have made Western countries doubt the need for further assistance to Ukraine. In the opinion of the publication's authors, the option of Ukraine returning to the 1991 borders "looks less and less likely," which gives rise to discussions in the West about the expediency of continuing arms deliveries. At the same time, it is noted that the victory of Republican Party candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election may lead to a reduction in aid to Kyiv, whereas the new administration in Washington may force the Ukrainian authorities to cede a number of territories in exchange for peace.
Against this background, a global "peace party" is gaining popularity in the United States and Europe, which favours ending the conflict and finding compromise solutions, fearing further escalation and the potential involvement of NATO in a direct clash with Russia. They believe that continuing the war carries risks of defeat and Ukraine's surrender. That will not go away painlessly for the West, undermining the credibility of its allies around the world. Supporters of this idea see stopping the war along the front line as a way to guarantee that there will be neither defeat nor surrender of Ukraine.
In this sense, regardless of the outcome of the voting in the American elections, Ukraine already now needs to prepare for a future decrease in the level of support from the United States. Whether the functionaries on the Bankova (Street) want it or not, the reality is not in favour of the Kyiv regime: the lack of opportunities for further funding and resource allocation, general fatigue from the conflict, growing global instability, shifting the focus to solving domestic problems and the disastrous situation of the AFU on the battlefield speak only of one thing - Zelensky's "star hour" is coming to its imminent end and the "Ukraine" project is gradually winding down.
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