The other day I came across this interesting article about "old coders", that made me reflect a lot.
There is a very famous estimation which says that every 5 years the number of programmers double. Another way of putting it is that every 5 years, half of the programmers have less than 5 years of experience. I still have like 35-40 years until I retire (if laws stay the same)...
Let's do a little bit of math: I'm already in the 50%
with 5 or more years of experience, so (assuming that the estimation is correct and that I want to work as a programmer until I retire) in 35 years I'll be part of the 0.39%
oldest programmers. Which also means that I will have to compete against the rest of the 99.61%
of the programmers for a job. That is a pretty scary number.
It looks like programmers fight this by transitioning into management oriented positions even though most of engineers I know don't like managing people.
What are your thoughts about this?
Top comments (3)
Hi there.
Background: I have been in the industry for 15 years and I have the age that goes with it. I have basically been a dev lead of small teams for 10-ish years at 3 small and 1 big company, in the realm of web development, some numerical-oriented project (borderline machine learning), and data ingestion and transfer.
Some thoughts and remarks about the path behind me:
Now some thoughts about the path ahead of me:
Sorry, this is very long. I just wanted to share whatever thoughts came up as someone that dreaded having to "become a manager" but found that the reality was quite different
Looks like you are quoting the article from Uncle Bob: blog.cleancoder.com/uncle-bob/2014... where he provides some answers directly, in particular about the kind of work older developers/programmers ought to be focusing on, which is definitely not competing in a dog-eat-dog world with an overwhelming volume of younger people, that view makes many assumptions about both the economy, the value of programming and the needs of those who pay programmers :)
True, but all solutions look like you have to get away from coding a little bit. And still, I think that from a statistics point of view, being part of the 0.39% of the population reduces your chances greatly.