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Panda Quests
Panda Quests

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Unemployment rate is at record high. At the same time tech stock are also at record high. Is a tech bubble like in 1999 coming?

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Mike Bybee • Edited

I've been warning that the economy wasn't healthy for a long time, and the only people who agreed with me were a few economist friends who oppose fiat currency (note they're not plugging crypto either) and those who were the opposite political affiliation of whichever party was in office. I've been warning about this pretty much since the Great Recession.

During the Obama years, Republicans all said "Yeah!" in agreement with me, while Democrats all said "Look at the Dow, you idiot!" Since January 2017, Democrats have all said "Yeah!" in agreement with me while Republicans have all said "Look at the Dow, you idiot!"

What are the biggest indicators to me? I see two major canaries in the coal mine:

  • On a macroeconomic level, the fact that interest rates have been kept artificially low since the Reagan administration.
  • As a developer, it's the proliferation of contract gigs I see (rather than full-time permanent), telling me companies are still hedging their bets. Don't have to announce layoffs when you pull the plug on contracts.

I'm not sure if this is going to be the cause of the bottom finally falling out (I suspect sooner rather than later), but it's going to be ugly when it does.

As for bubbles, at the very least I suspect we'll see a great deal of consolidation (both acquisitions and failures) in the remote work technology space. If you're good enough to get bought out, go for it. Otherwise, I'd recommend finding another way to meet customer needs.