Naval Academy Graduate (Systems Engineering), former Submarine Officer. Currently getting my MS in Computer & Electrical Eng, and recently graduated Flatiron's Software Engineering bootcamp.
Location
St. Louis, MO
Education
BS Systems Engineering, USNA
Work
Technical Coach, Software Engineering at Flatiron School
I would argue that if he doesn't open a door then this is no longer an interesting problem because you are just randomly trying to choose a prize out of 3 doors. The problem is only interesting to consider once he opens a door. In terms of your choice to switch or not, that would be a decision that you make after a door is opened (or in your scenario not opened), so you would only apply the logic described above if the host did open a door. Otherwise, you are just in a random guessing game.
Yes, definitely. But it's partly the variations on the problem wording which has created some of the confusion as to the probability. Often when people repeat the problem they don't clearly indicate the host must open a door.
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I would argue that if he doesn't open a door then this is no longer an interesting problem because you are just randomly trying to choose a prize out of 3 doors. The problem is only interesting to consider once he opens a door. In terms of your choice to switch or not, that would be a decision that you make after a door is opened (or in your scenario not opened), so you would only apply the logic described above if the host did open a door. Otherwise, you are just in a random guessing game.
Yes, definitely. But it's partly the variations on the problem wording which has created some of the confusion as to the probability. Often when people repeat the problem they don't clearly indicate the host must open a door.