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Cover image for An analysis of the $62 million RTX 30 Series Scalping Market

An analysis of the $62 million RTX 30 Series Scalping Market

Michael Driscoll
Data Product Senior Associate Lead at Avant & Graduate Student in Machine Learning at Georgia Tech
Updated on ・16 min read

Source Code for Data Scraping: https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper

This article is a continuation of my analysis of the scalping market.

Highlights:

  • 49,580 Ampere GPUs sold on eBay/StockX
  • $61.5 million in sales on eBay/StockX for ~$15.2 million in profit for scalpers and $6.8 million for eBay/PayPal/StockX
  • Sale prices increased 6-25% due to the tariffs, except for the 3090 which its scalped price was unaffected
  • RTX 20, RTX 16, GTX 1000, and GTX 900 series cards all increased 33-100% in price since the launch of Ampere

Methodology:
As this gets asked a fair amount on how I avoid fake listings:

  • This analysis is only for sold listings.
  • I scanned the listings for the words image, picture, mpeg, paper, "Box only", "read description", which are indicators they're fake.
  • Anything below MSRP I tossed out.
  • Anything for a suspicious account, less than 10 feedback I manually checked.
  • I looked at all the lowest 100 or so listing to validate. * I've been doing this every few days for the past few months. Did I get every single listing? Surely not, but I'm very confident I got the vast majority.

Checking in on the RTX 30 series and Big Navi, the only thing I can say about my previous commentary is that I was wrong. I had predicted the launch of the 3060 Ti would bring pricing down, and that was very wrong. This is in no small part due to the new tariffs on graphics cards which hiked prices by 7-25%, and scalpers… hiked their prices just as much. The 3060 went from 160% launch price 1/1/21 to now 210% launch price and has recently fallen down to 190% of launch price. The 3080 is a similar story, from 170% at Christmas to now 200%. The 3070 has grown more modestly to “only” 170%, though the 3090 seems unaffected. I suspect its price is already so high that those who felt a need to buy it have already bought and now only those who want to buy are buying and can wait for semi-normal price.

For the prices below, I have left the break evens as they were from before the tariff increase to show how much prices have changed and the scalper profits using the old MSRP as I suspect most sales are from cards purchased before the increase.

RTX 30 Series Median Pricing

GPU Graph MSRP Total Sold Median Price Past Week Median Price Casual Scalper Break Even Sophisticated Scalper Break Even Total Sales Estimated Scalper Profits Estimated eBay/PayPal Profits
RTX 3060 Ti $399 5539 $667 $800 $498 $406 $3,839,423 $974,121 $434,582
RTX 3070 $499 11684 $809 $867 $623 $507 $9,532,680 $2,092,119 $1,077,600
RTX 3080 $699 14066 $1300 $1449 $869 $711 $19,246,356 $6,313,471 $2,233,617
RTX 3090 $1499 7775 $2159 $2109 $1849 $1523 $17,426,583 $2,914,143 $1,973,795
Total N/A 39064 N/A N/A N/A N/A $50,045,042 $12,293,854 $5,719,594

Comparing eBay to StockX for Ampere, while the volume on StockX is smaller, it is not insignificant. Over $11.5 million in sales, $2.8 million in scalper profits, over 10,000 sold across the three cards, scalpers are reaping in the profits all over.

CPU Total Sold Average Sales Price Last Week Average Price Total Sales Volume Estimated StockX Profits Estimated Scalper Profits
3060 Ti 1955 $637 $735 $1,256,499 $113,085 $325,674
3070 3697 $794 $812 $2,885,006 $259,650 $694,002
3080 3473 $1,302 $1,318 $4,408,229 $396,740 $1,451,614
3090 1491 $2,008 $1,921 $2,987,600 $268,884 $394,079
Total 10616 N/A N/A $11,537,334 $1,038,360 $2,865,370

3070 Cumulative Sales/Profits

Looking into the cumulative sales and profits over time, in the case of all four RTX 30 series, there was a sudden surge in sales between Christmas and shortly after the new year. 3090s seem to have surged before the new year, Christmas sales I imagine, but the other three cards had a run on sales once the tariffs were announced, briefly doubling or even tripling the normal sales volume for any given day.

RTX 30 Series Seller Quantity Sold

When it comes to the sellers of the RTX 30 series, there are far more no-store sellers vs store sellers compared to Zen 3, despite a ~5x difference in sales volume between the two. Further for those sellers selling 5 or more GPUs, it only makes up a quarter of the sellers, while 61% sold 5 or fewer, with 22% selling just one and just over a third selling 1 or 2. It seems many more individuals were lucky to get their hands on an RTX 30 series and turned to eBay to make a quick buck than Zen 3.

RTX 30 Series Seller Feedback

In terms of feedback, at least 4% of listing are scams with zero feedback, but the curve followers a normal curve as to be expected, with the 100-499 range being the most common with 31% of sellers.

RTX 30 Series AIB 7 Day Rolling Average

AIB AIB Total # Sold AIB Total Sales 3060 Average Price 3060 Total Sold 3060 Total Sales 3070 Average Price 3070 Total Sold 3070 Total Sales 3080 Average Price 3080 Total Sold 3080 Total Sales 3090 Average Price 3090 Total Sold 3090 Total Sales
FOUNDER 9800 $13,406,829 $682 1426 $972,931 $824 3046 $2,508,472 $1,442 2413 $3,479,836 $2,211 2915 $6,445,590
EVGA 6867 $8,791,818 $704 497 $349,838 $813 1536 $1,248,461 $1,287 3805 $4,897,758 $2,231 1029 $2,295,761
ASUS 5746 $7,793,521 $724 766 $554,722 $843 1823 $1,536,588 $1,399 1870 $2,616,654 $2,397 1287 $3,085,557
MSI 5826 $6,509,853 $689 812 $559,452 $813 2131 $1,733,270 $1,264 2197 $2,777,162 $2,099 686 $1,439,969
GIGABYTE 4780 $5,289,832 $692 1045 $723,600 $812 1616 $1,312,354 $1,322 1575 $2,082,402 $2,153 544 $1,171,477
ZOTAC 3205 $3,612,846 $671 486 $325,941 $766 886 $678,313 $1,200 1290 $1,548,581 $1,952 543 $1,060,012
PNY 917 $1,153,876 $745 24 $17,879 $772 347 $267,881 $1,276 322 $410,936 $2,041 224 $457,180

A natural question when it comes to the RTX 30 series is does AIB reseller have any impact on the price someone is willing to buy from a scalper? In terms of sheer sales volume, the Founder series has 9800 sales, with EVGA coming second with 6867 , then MSI with 5826. Despite that it appears ASUS is consistently priced higher than others, often by 20% for periods, while ZOTAC and PNY are the lowest priced by on average closer to 15%. This could just be an indication that ZOTAC and PNY don’t sell as many high-end cards or a lack of trust in the brand.

Turing (RTX 20 Series) Pricing

Finally, what impact did the release of the RTX 30 series have on previous generations of NVIDIA graphics cards? For Pascal cards, initially they stayed stable, but the new tariffs have increased the resale prices of all GTX 10 series cards, by about 50% for most of the cards. Turing’s RTX 20 series is also affected though again to a lesser extent, mostly impacting the lower end cards, the 2060s and 2060 Supers. However, the real rise in pricing was for the Turing RTX 16 series cards, all of them going up 50-60% in price since the launch of Ampere. It doesn't stop with those either, even the GTX 900 series have seen price nearly double for a few cards, though still well below their initial MSRP.

Detailed Sales Plots

Cumulative Profit/Sales Plots

Discussion (2)

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iluv2raceit profile image
Great America • Edited

Scalping only works because there are people dumb enough to pay the ridiculously high prices. Feed the scalper dragon and get burned every time. I will not and have not ever paid one penny over MSRP. Even if I have to wait six months, I will NEVER pay any scalper a single penny. I bought two XBOX Series X consoles and an EVGA RTX3080 FTW3 Ultra and didn’t pay a penny over MSRP. So, it can be done.

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arthur40056743 profile image
Arthur

hm