Your citation (Gao et al., ICSE 2017) doesn’t consider if the repositories studied had code reviews / desk reviews. So the 15% bug saving might be after code reviews. That’s just one of many ways that particular study has been incorrectly applied. The study authors themselves point out that there are other benefits besides bug reduction.
That being said, I really appreciate that you analyzed the data and took a measured approach. That’s much better than this article we’re commenting on which by the authors own words is subjective. But hey, if people don’t like a specific tool, they don’t have to use it. But screws are hard to install with a wrench.
Thank you for your thoughtful response.
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