Despite all that, I don't know how are we going to organize our apps inside the browser!
You don't need to, that's the purpose of the open web, which Andre Staltz says it's dead (and he is right).
Making a proper PWA is a pain, and only those who tackle every single issue will be the masters of their domain. Companies with better PWAs are already improving against their competition, there are many case studies in every Google I/O and Chrome Dev Summit. Fortunately the tooling is getting exponentially better every year.
But the only way to learn is to start working on it, caching locally first it's a big problem on it's own.
Making local databases on Native is easier, sadly this is abused constantly, with unnecessary wakelocks triggering on your devices every minute just because the devs didn't bother for a better way or 500 mb payloads because they wanted to ship 40 libraries to do the same thing.
Making a website is hard, but the entry barrier is minimal to no existent compared to a native app, and so is for consumers.
There will always be use cases for native applications, but I disagree Spotify is one of them, even Netflix runs decently on a web application. Most used applications are for data consumption and thus they do not need to be a native app.
If you make a competitor Spotify in a PWA that works correctly you would definitely make a dent on their market share and may even leave them in the dust... but it's not easy, competition is hard. If you try to compete on a native app you will be left in the void.
I think the real question people need to be doing is Should I be building a native application for my business case?
For someone in the US it usually makes sense, iOS has a decent market share for you to get started.
For Android is a pain, there are way too many devices that you need to make the question If I'm going to support all these devices for TV, Desktop, Phones, should I be doing a WebApp instead?
will IOS and Android developer jobs die?
I don't think so no, if anything they will become more rare like COBOL jobs. Maybe very well remunerated because devs in those techs will decrease.
Why will there be less developers?
Companies want to be ubiquitous, this is a problem if you try to develop an app that works everywhere with a reliable UX and UI. So big companies might find it more profitable to sunk costs on proper WebApps instead of Native Apps. Keep in mind that Google and Facebook already control up to 70%, so your's or your companie's piece of the action is getting harder to get.
For small companies with niche markets in a specific device then none of this is necessary, so you can tackle a Native App if you live in a town that makes a lot of them (I live in Atlanta an Big Nerd Ranch means a big presence of native devs).
It's way harder right now to do a decent UX on a PWA than on Native, because by default you have to support a ton of devices and browsers. On Native you can constraint that, making you live a better life in general on the short term. But that is manageable, you could say 'we're only supporting X browsers and versions on launch' instead of tackling 'the whole world'.
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You don't need to, that's the purpose of the open web, which Andre Staltz says it's dead (and he is right).
Making a proper PWA is a pain, and only those who tackle every single issue will be the masters of their domain. Companies with better PWAs are already improving against their competition, there are many case studies in every Google I/O and Chrome Dev Summit. Fortunately the tooling is getting exponentially better every year.
But the only way to learn is to start working on it, caching locally first it's a big problem on it's own.
Making local databases on Native is easier, sadly this is abused constantly, with unnecessary wakelocks triggering on your devices every minute just because the devs didn't bother for a better way or 500 mb payloads because they wanted to ship 40 libraries to do the same thing.
Making a website is hard, but the entry barrier is minimal to no existent compared to a native app, and so is for consumers.
There will always be use cases for native applications, but I disagree Spotify is one of them, even Netflix runs decently on a web application. Most used applications are for data consumption and thus they do not need to be a native app.
If you make a competitor Spotify in a PWA that works correctly you would definitely make a dent on their market share and may even leave them in the dust... but it's not easy, competition is hard. If you try to compete on a native app you will be left in the void.
I think the real question people need to be doing is Should I be building a native application for my business case?
For someone in the US it usually makes sense, iOS has a decent market share for you to get started.
For Android is a pain, there are way too many devices that you need to make the question If I'm going to support all these devices for TV, Desktop, Phones, should I be doing a WebApp instead?
I don't think so no, if anything they will become more rare like COBOL jobs. Maybe very well remunerated because devs in those techs will decrease.
Why will there be less developers?
Companies want to be ubiquitous, this is a problem if you try to develop an app that works everywhere with a reliable UX and UI. So big companies might find it more profitable to sunk costs on proper WebApps instead of Native Apps. Keep in mind that Google and Facebook already control up to 70%, so your's or your companie's piece of the action is getting harder to get.
For small companies with niche markets in a specific device then none of this is necessary, so you can tackle a Native App if you live in a town that makes a lot of them (I live in Atlanta an Big Nerd Ranch means a big presence of native devs).
It's way harder right now to do a decent UX on a PWA than on Native, because by default you have to support a ton of devices and browsers. On Native you can constraint that, making you live a better life in general on the short term. But that is manageable, you could say 'we're only supporting X browsers and versions on launch' instead of tackling 'the whole world'.